Mali, a landlocked country in West Africa that has been engulfed in conflict since 2012, has just experienced one of its hottest dry seasons in years. The country’s dry season runs from March to early-June and is generally marked by an annual period of brutal clashes between the Movement for the Salvation of Azawad (MSA) and the Islamic State’s Sahel Province, formerly known as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara.
The MSA is an ethnic Tuareg armed movement operating in Mali. It supports the efforts of the Malian Armed Forces and has often worked alongside French forces during their decade-long fight against Jihadist groups in the region. The MSA also works with their partners in the GATIA armed group and together they are regularly involved in brutal clashes against the Islamic State.
As the region’s wet season begins, the intense clashes between the MSA and Islamic State reach a relative lull. The wet season runs from mid-June to September and usually results in a temporary cessation of hostilities between the warring factions.
The maps below give an indication of how the seasons affect the number of violent incidents in Mali.
The top map shows all violent events in Mali from March to mid-June 2021 (the dry season). The bottom map shows all violent events in Mali from late-June to September 2021 (the wet season).
Whilst there is still a considerable amount of incidents that occur during the wet season, it is evidently far less than what occurs during the dry period.
Additionally, during the wet season there appears to be far less activity around the tri-regional border areas of Gao, Mopti and Timbuktu. This is likely due to seasonal flooding from the Niger river which runs directly through these regions, restricting the movement of vehicles and large troop numbers.
The graph above gives a visual aid of all violent activity from March to July 2022. There is a significantly sharp decline in the number of events from June to July, which corresponds with the onset of this year’s wet season.
This year’s dry season conflict began when the Islamic State assassinated an officer from the MSA in the town of Tamalat, followed by a series of raids on Tuareg villages. The MSA sent reinforcements to repel the attackers, but 12 civilians had already been killed. Days later, the Islamic State carried out a series of massacres in March against Tuareg communities in the northern Menaka region, resulting in the deaths of over 400 civilians.
Massacres remain a common tactic of the Islamic State’s Sahel Province. The group intentionally targets civilians as it accuses them of being informants for the MSA and Malian government, deeming them complicit in any action taken against the group. The Islamic State also believes that all Tuaregs should be punished for their affiliation to the MSA.
In late March, the Islamic State released issue 331 of its weekly newsletter, al-Naba, in which the group claimed a prolonged attack on the town of Anderamboukane, near the Mali-Niger border. Over 250 MSA fighters were said to have been killed. The militants captured the town and a nearby Malian military camp.
Anderamboukane would become the main battle ground of this year’s conflict.
The town is a necessity for jihadists to control during the wet season. It sits on the shores of a river system belonging to the Iullemmeden basin, which is subject to heavy flooding, making it difficult for any counter attacks once the annual rains begin. It is also a seasonal gathering point for nomadic tribes who venture there during the rainy season, providing a larger population to collect taxes or recruit from.
Fighting continued in the following weeks. Islamic State atrocities against civilians continued into April, expanding further into the Gao region. In early April, the group also claimed to have killed over 30 militiamen affiliated with the MSA, in the towns of Zankita and Wayan.
The massacres led to an escalation in the conflict as the MSA launched a series of offensive operations against Islamic State elements on May 22, in the villages of Emiss Emiss and Inekar-East. The Islamic State was forced to retreat as 30 of its members were killed and many more were captured. According to Amnesty International, thousands of people were forced to flee their homes due to the heavy fighting.
On June 4, a joint force of MSA, GATIA and Malian Armed Forces launched a successful operation to recapture Anderamboukane and the nearby military camp from Islamic State forces. At the time, the Jihadist group was reported to be in control of around two thirds of that region.
In issue 343 of the Islamic State’s al-Naba newsletter, the group commented on the battle of Anderamboukane, but avoided explicitly saying that they had lost control of the town.
The article says that a “huge column” of Malian military vehicles approached the town, led by General al-Heiji Ag Ghamwa. The Islamic State claims to have killed “more than 50” Malian and MSA troops during the battle. Though this number is likely exaggerated, the group did provide photo evidence of at least 6 killed.
Islamic State said that its fighters also attacked a lesser-guarded militia stronghold in the village of Emiss Emiss on the same day. They claimed to have clashed with the militia and “chased them out of the area”.
Days later, the group claimed to have ambushed a joint MSA-GATIA patrol, “killing and wounding a number of them”, according to the same al-Naba article. Then, weeks later, its forces claimed to have captured 2 more villages in southern Menaka, according to a report by the group’s affiliated Amaq news agency. The Islamic State’s presence was rapidly expanding.
In late-June, nearing the end of the dry season, the group launched another major counteroffensive against the MSA in Anderamboukane, which had only been captured from them weeks earlier. They were determined to retake the town before the end of the dry season.
A set of gruesome photos were released which appear to show dozens of MSA and civilians killed, suggesting that it was another intense battle. The Islamic State fighters had successfully recaptured the town and also seized large quantities of weapons and ammunition, pictured below.
Unfortunately, as the dry season came to an end in late June, another massacre occurred leaving over 130 civilians dead. The MSA continues to patrol regions that are vulnerable to Islamic State attacks and massacres.
It is uncertain which faction is currently in control of Anderamboukane. Whilst fighting has not stopped, the onset of Mali’s wet season restricts excessive troop movements and will likely prevent any major offensives being conducted in the coming months.