Somalia has long suffered from civil wars, famine, corruption and weak governance, but terrorism remains the country’s main concern as it contends with a decades-long insurgency led by al-Shabaab.
al-Shabaab is an extremist Islamic militant group which controls massive portions of Somalia and is closely associated with al-Qaeda. A recent UN report estimated the group to earn between $50 to $100 million annually, and commands between 7000 to 12,000 active fighters.
In late August, al-Shabaab launched an attack on the Hayat Hotel in the country’s capital, Mogadishu, which turned into a 30-hour siege leaving 21 people killed and over 100 injured.
Following the attack, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pledged an “all-out war” to eliminate the militant group.
President Mohamud has only been in Office since May of this year, but he is not ‘new’ to the job. He also previously served as President from 2012 to 2017, which was a particularly crucial time in Somalia’s long fight against al-Shabaab. He dedicated his term to securing the capital and eradicating the group, with very little success.
When his term came to an end in 2017, Somalia suffered its deadliest terrorist attack in the country’s history. A single truck bombing in Mogadishu killed almost 600 people and injured over 300 others. al-Shabaab was suspected to be behind the attack, but never claimed responsibility.
This tragic event reinforced the perception that Somalia was trapped in a seemingly endless cycle of violence.
In the run up to this year’s election, Mohamud declared counterterrorism to be one of his top priorities, stating that “Somalia in 2022 should be better secured against al-Shabaab”.
Just days after President Mohamud declared all-out war on al-Shabaab, the Somali National Army (SNA) and its international allies launched a large-scale offensive operation in the Hiraan region of central Somalia. It is considered the largest combined Somali and African Union offensive operation in over 5 years.
Hiraan has been an al-Shabaab stronghold for over a decade. Its scarcely governed spaces and relatively close proximity to Mogadishu makes it a highly beneficial region to the militant group.
Hiraan also holds sentimental value to President Mohamud, who was born and raised there.
On September 12, the Somali government released its first statement praising the new offensive. According to the statement, the SNA had already captured 6 towns in the Hiraan region and killed over 100 militants. Several more towns were also captured in other regions, such as Galgudud and the Bay area.
Days later, the SNA targeted an al-Shabaab base located 90km away from Hiraan’s provincial capital, resulting in the deaths of 18 militants.
On September 19, another statement reported that the SNA and their allies conducted more operations in central Hiraan region, resulting in the deaths of another 100 militants.
Somali forces appeared to be making significant gains.
However, in late September al-Shabaab began to mount a heavy counter-offensive to reclaim much of its lost territory in the Hiraan region.
On September 29, local sources reported intense fighting as the militants launched a dawn raid on a base recently liberated by government forces.
The following day, al-Shabaab released photos of its fighters re-entering the town of Booco, which had been captured by Somali and African Union forces just a week earlier. In the same week, the militant group also recaptured the towns of Moqokori, Aboorey, Yesooman and Garasyaani.
The tide quickly began to shift back into al-Shabaab’s favor.
In a further act of retaliation, on October 3rd, al-Shabaab carried out 3 coordinated suicide bombings in Beledweyne city, the provincial capital of Hiraan region. 20 people were killed and 36 others injured. The state’s Health Minister and Deputy District Commissioner were among those killed. The bombings were the largest the city had experienced in years.
Foreign Support
The government’s offensive has been receiving significant foreign material support from 3 main actors: the United States, Turkey and the African Union.
Although the United States has been conducting airstrikes in Somalia for years, President Joe Biden’s decision to send hundreds of troops back into the country has provided greater target acquisition for airstrikes and allows US Special Forces to accompany Somali troops on the battlefield.
This has made a noticeable difference during the current offensive. On September 18, the US launched an airstrike against an al-Shabaab element that was engaging Somali forces in southern Hiraan. 27 militants were killed and the Somalis were able to successfully complete their operation.
In another significant blow to the militant group, the US launched a precision drone strike on October 1st which killed Abdullahi Yare, a senior al-Shabaab figure who was serving as the head of the group’s proselytization department, responsible for radicalizing thousands of new recruits. At the time of his death, Yare had a $3 million bounty on his head.
Turkey has also recently started to provide air support for Somali forces during their offensive. According to Somalia’s Interior Minister, Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones are providing aerial combat assistance and military reconnaissance.
But perhaps the largest foreign component is the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), an African Union-led force which has provided a large contingent of ground troops from various member states, including Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Uganda and Burundi. ATMIS troops have regularly been involved in combat operations against al-Shabaab, as well as securing liberated towns and establishing supply routes.
Western Special Forces are also active on the ground during offensive operations. On September 24, a suspected US Special Forces member was spotted alongside African Union troops, helping to evacuate wounded Somali soldiers during an operation against al-Shabaab.
With the world’s attention focused on the events in Ukraine, the conflict in Somalia has been raging far from the media spotlight.
The ongoing situation in the Hiraan region remains fluid, as both sides have demonstrated their ability to capture and hold territory.
Although al-Shabaab remains well-entrenched in the rural areas of central Somalia, the government may be able to dislodge the group with continued assistance from its foreign and local partners. But this will take time. The conflict has been ongoing for decades and it is unlikely to end anytime soon.